Potential Tropical Cyclone One was identified by the National Hurricane Center Tuesday morning along the Texas coastline.
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The area of unsettled weather will produce significant rainfall across the western Gulf coast over the next few days, with a narrow window for development to a named system.
In anticipation of this, tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of Texas and Louisiana.
Should it organize, it would take the season’s first name, Aurthur. This occurrence would be just ahead of the average date for a named system to form in the Atlantic basin, June 20th.
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The use of Potential Tropical Cyclone designation allows the National Hurricane Center to issue watches or warnings ahead of expected organization. This allows messaging to precede storm development in impacted areas.
The system poses no threat to South Florida.
Early season storms are often ill-defined, lean on the weaker side of spectrum of wind impacts and are known for their development in proximity to the Gulf and Southeast coastlines. Though weak, they can be notorious for the copious amount of rainfall they produce, which appears to the mode in this instance.
The risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding will spread out from Texas to Alabama over the next few days as the system tracks northeast. With widespread rain totals of 4 to 7 inches and the likelihood of locally heavier amounts, the inland flood threat is the greatest risk from this system.
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There are no other areas of concern in the Atlantic at this time.