The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low pressure heading into the central tropical Atlantic. Under careful watch for the last few days, the seedling for a tropical depression is likely to encounter an environment that’s suitable for development over the next few days.
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For the time being, the slow and steady progression of the system has been given a “high” probability to mature. With chances at 70%, forecast models agree, even if weak, it could very well develop by week’s end.
Should the system organize and acquire a name, it would be “Cristobal.”
Whether or not development occurs, the current trajectories will keep it in the open Atlantic, turning away from the United States coastline over the next several days. It poses no threat to South Florida.
For perspective, in an average season, the third named storm and the season’s first hurricane would have typically developed at this time. Running behind this historical pace is expected in a season that is forecast to be dominated by wind shear and bouts of Saharan air. The influence of El Niño is only expected to become better established in the coming months.
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A season’s total activity is best measured by Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, then by the number of storms alone. ACE accounts for a storm’s strength and duration. This season’s ACE currently stands at 2.6 after two short-lived Gulf of Mexico storms, Arthur and Bertha, compared with an average of about 12.5 by this point. By mid-September, near the season’s peak, the average ACE rises to about 66. An average season will produce ACE values closer to 122.
This year is unlikely to get close to that level, but there will be a small gain should this system become organized late week.
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