{"id":1107,"date":"2026-05-31T17:09:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-31T17:09:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jacksonvillemovingnews.com\/?p=1107"},"modified":"2026-05-31T17:09:22","modified_gmt":"2026-05-31T17:09:22","slug":"john-morales-forecast-shows-fewer-hurricanes-during-2026-season-but-dont-get-comfortable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jacksonvillemovingnews.com\/?p=1107","title":{"rendered":"John Morales: Forecast shows fewer hurricanes during 2026 season, but don’t get comfortable"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Behold, the \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o! Ahem\u2026a forecast for a strong El Ni\u00f1o. But if it\u2019s \u201cMighty\u201d Casey at the Bat, then we\u2019re going to win the game! Right? RIGHT?!<\/p>\n

Read more Man who barricaded self at Oakland Park apartment complex dies after being shot, BSO says<\/a><\/p>\n

Everybody is expecting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA\u2019s seasonal outlook says there\u2019s a 55% chance that the season will bring fewer storms. And experts at Colorado State University\u2014the entity that has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts the longest\u2014also point to a slightly below normal season with six instead of the normal seven hurricanes.<\/p>\n

Even more encouraging: if you average out the Atlantic seasonal outlooks from nearly 20 academic, public and private entities, only five Atlantic hurricanes are forecast this year.<\/p>\n

Five hurricanes would match the total number for the Atlantic basin in 2025.<\/p>\n

Last year, Floridians were finally able to rest after being hit by hurricanes for three consecutive years (Ian 2022, Idalia 2023, Helene & Milton 2024). But last year also reminded us of a new, alarming worldwide trend towards stronger typhoons and hurricanes.<\/p>\n

Four of the five hurricanes last year reached Category 4 or 5 intensity. And at the expense of Jamaica, Major Hurricane Melissa tied for the strongest landfalling storm in the history of the Atlantic basin.<\/p>\n

Climate change has warmed the oceans across the globe, which has led to a greater propensity for tropical cyclones to reach Cat 4 & 5 status\u2014the strongest and most catastrophic type of hurricanes. Especially in this El Ni\u00f1o year, the old adage of \u201cit only takes one\u201d has never been more important. The \u201cone\u201d could be devastating for whoever is in the way.<\/p>\n

Read more 2 hospitalized after being shot near IHOP in Cutler Bay, deputies say<\/a><\/p>\n

South Florida\u2019s infamous Hurricane Betsy (1965) happened in a strong El Ni\u00f1o year. 2023 had a strong El Ni\u00f1o, but Idalia hit the Panhandle. 2004 was an El Ni\u00f1o year too, and hurricanes Charley, Frances and Jeanne all struck the state. And one of the most infamous storms to ever strike the U.S. happened in an El Ni\u00f1o year: 1969\u2019s Hurricane Camille, which devastated Mississippi. \u00a0<\/p>\n

My message is that you can\u2019t get too comfortable with the notion that a strong or even \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o will keep hurricanes away this year.<\/p>\n

For now, NOAA has issued an El Ni\u00f1o Watch as equatorial sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean continue to trend higher, which should eventually result in stronger storm-inhibiting westerly wind shear across the Atlantic\u2019s hurricane breeding grounds. But even in an overall hostile environment, there are bound to be stretches of days in which the shear weakens, and opportunities materialize for stronger storm formation.<\/p>\n

In preparation for this season, know your home\u2019s vulnerability and potential exposure to wind and water. Make a plan and be ready. I\u2019ll be with you again on NBC6. And don\u2019t forget that, given the well- documented higher chance for storms to undergo rapid intensification, any window of opportunity\u2014even with an El Ni\u00f1o\u2014could lead to disaster.<\/p>\n

Read more Miami\u2019s Haitian community celebrates the country\u2019s first World Cup berth in 52 years<\/a><\/p>\n

Then there would be no joy in Mudville.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Everybody is expecting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA\u2019s seasonal outlook says there\u2019s a 55% chance that the season will bring fewer storms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1106,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[142],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hurricane-season"],"yoast_head":"\nJohn Morales: Forecast shows fewer hurricanes during 2026 season, but don't get comfortable - Jacksonville Moving News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/jacksonvillemovingnews.com\/?p=1107\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"John Morales: Forecast shows fewer hurricanes during 2026 season, but don't get comfortable - Jacksonville Moving News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Everybody is expecting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season. 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